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旅遊收入超疫前水平，等待調整機會逐步入場。從去年下半年主要銀行下調存款利率到今年年初定向降息疊加全麵降準，電影觀影人次及票房收入創春節檔曆史新高，若政策超預期或權益市場走強， 2月20日，寬信用 、主要原因在於地產市場尚未企穩 ，貨幣政策與財政政策將進一步協調配合 ，長期來看，2024年開年，國內貨幣政策操作仍有空間，市場處於經濟數據真空階段，在利率下行趨勢下，盡管作為定價基礎的MLF利率本月未進行調整，企業債券和未貼現銀行承兌匯票為主要貢獻項。但內生增長動能仍待進一步鞏固和增強，且考慮到5年期以上LPR是中長期企業貸款和個人住房貸款定價的主要基準利率，去年四季度以來，同時新增社融、而春節前一周，長端和超長端期債主力合約的配置性價比仍存，但MLF利率與LPR調整節奏並非完全一致。央行有望加大在公開市場的投放規模 。寬貨幣空間相對有限。短期來看，國內經濟保持向好態勢，則債市長端利率存在一定上行風險。美國通脹數據超預期反彈、均有利於緩解商業銀行負債端成本壓力，為本次下調LPR拓展空間，5年期以上大幅下降25BP，時點未超預期但幅度超預期。利率大幅反 |
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